Geen tijd voor vertaling en uitgebreid er bij stil te staan. Komt er op neer dat westelijke negatieve NAO, de kern van het hoog, in het oosten van Canada ligt en dat dit veelal niet goed is qua winterweer bij ons, denk bijv. februari 2009.
Theres good and bad news from upstream regarding the NOAA discussions:
The good first, the ECM output past 168hrs can be dumped.
The bad, the reason it can be dumped is that a western based negative NAO is expected which totally contradicts the ECM operational run past 168hrs which has a strongly positive NAO.
Normally a western based negative NAO isn't great for cold into the UK unless you have low heights over Europe and not the typical ridge pushed ne into southern Europe ahead of the amplified flow over the eastern USA.
Because retrogression of the Siberian high is expected towards Svalbard then theres a better chance that will culminate in lower heights over Europe including the UK so the route to colder weather isn't cut off as that ridges over the top.
In terms of the models they all agree on the high displacing into the Atlantic at 144hrs, so finally some model agreement, I expect the ECM to drop its throwback to early winter chart tomorrow as quite frankly its utter nonsense, the ECM is the best global model upto 144hrs and as we've seen drops a bad idea quickly like it did with the northerly, expect that FI output to meet a similar fate!
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72555-model-discussion-and-chat-10th-feb/page__st__60__p__2268436#entry2268436
Theres good and bad news from upstream regarding the NOAA discussions:
The good first, the ECM output past 168hrs can be dumped.
The bad, the reason it can be dumped is that a western based negative NAO is expected which totally contradicts the ECM operational run past 168hrs which has a strongly positive NAO.
Normally a western based negative NAO isn't great for cold into the UK unless you have low heights over Europe and not the typical ridge pushed ne into southern Europe ahead of the amplified flow over the eastern USA.
Because retrogression of the Siberian high is expected towards Svalbard then theres a better chance that will culminate in lower heights over Europe including the UK so the route to colder weather isn't cut off as that ridges over the top.
In terms of the models they all agree on the high displacing into the Atlantic at 144hrs, so finally some model agreement, I expect the ECM to drop its throwback to early winter chart tomorrow as quite frankly its utter nonsense, the ECM is the best global model upto 144hrs and as we've seen drops a bad idea quickly like it did with the northerly, expect that FI output to meet a similar fate!
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72555-model-discussion-and-chat-10th-feb/page__st__60__p__2268436#entry2268436
Zwarte, dreigende wolken worden soms uit alle hemelstreken nog door den dampkring, die ons omringt, heen gejaagd en ontbinden zich dan niet zelden in koude, somtijds met sneeuwvlokken vermengde regendroppelen of kletterenden hagel, die de ontspruitende grashalmen en de teedere bloemen, welke reeds de lagchende knopjes in den koesterenden zonneschijn ontsloten, met verwoesting dreigen; maar geen nood! achter die donkere wolken is de Lente geboren. Petronella Moens.
