Northern France, Benelux, north-western Germany
From northern France into north-western Germany, weaker moisture and lapse rates will result in weaker CAPE. However, given the strongly-forced synoptic set-up, convection will likely grow upscale into a squall line moving into north-western Germany in the late evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail are forecast with this system. A tornado is also not ruled out given increasing low-level vertical wind shear in the evening hours especially near the North Sea. Given the uncertainty of the low-level moisture recovery, a level 1 was introduced for the northern areas. A level 2 may be required in the case of better moisture recovery on Monday due to the possibility of a severe weather outbreak.
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