https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1224prog.txt
TY 12W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE STEERING RIDGE OVER CHINA FOR THE FIRST 36
HOURS OF THE FORECAST. A SLIGHT JOG TO A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
IS FORECAST AFTER TAU 36 AS THE RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST AND THE
STEERING GRADIENT ORIENTATION SHIFTS TO A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST AXIS. THE LATEST FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO
SKIRT THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF HAINAN ISLAND, PASS THROUGH THE
HAINAN STRAIT AND EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN, ALL DURING THE
24 HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72. LANDFALL NEAR HAIPHONG,
VIETNAM IS EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72, WITH THE SYSTEM QUICKLY
MOVING INLAND THEREAFTER. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM HAS
ALREADY RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS, AND FURTHER
RI IS ANTICIPATED. THE LATEST MSI SUGGESTS A BIT OF DRY AIR LINGERS
TO THE NORTHWEST, LIMITING THE INTENSIFICATION TREND SOMEWHAT BY
NOT ALLOWING FOR THE EYEWALL TO COMPLETELY CLOSE OFF. ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS DRY AIR WILL VACATE THE PREMISES IN THE
SHORT-TERM, AND ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION AND VORTEX
SYMMETRIZATION. AS SOON AS THIS PROCESS COMPLETES, EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 6-12 HOURS AT MOST, THE SYSTEM WILL EMBARK ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
RI. THE CURRENT FORECAST POINTS CALL FOR A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS AT TAU
36 AND TAU 48. IN REALITY, A HIGHER PEAK IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN THESE
TWO POINTS, AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE RI GUIDANCE. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE HAINAN STRAIT
DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION AND AN INCREASE IN VWS. ONCE OVER THE
GULF OF TONKIN, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN INTENSITY
THROUGH LANDFALL AS A SIGNIFICANT TYPHOON. ONCE OVER LAND, THE
SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE NO LATER THAN TAU 120
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 31-32 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
OTHER FACTORS: DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE NORTHWEST.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=12W&product=vis
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