Onderzoek naar Hunga Tonga en netto lichte afkoeling.

Ik postte het daarnet als antwoord in het hoofdforum. Ik denk dat dit ook goeie materie is voor het in het verdiepingsforum.

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https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024JD041296

 Paar kleine stukjes er uit --->

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Given the sensitivity of the climate to stratospheric water vapor, it is logical to assume that Hunga's water vapor injection might have a significant climate impact. Jenkins et al. (2023) used a parameterized climate-response model to investigate the climate impact of the Hunga water vapor plume. They neglected the impact of aerosols and only considered the radiative forcing due to the water vapor injection and computed a 0.12 W/m2 increase in tropospheric radiative forcing. However, Sellitto et al. (2022) and Zhu et al. (2022) roughly estimated that the aerosol plume would produce a peak February solar forcing reduction of ∼1.7 and 2.1 W/m2, exceeding the estimated forcing increase due to H2O. Schoeberl, Wang, Ueyama, Dessler, et al., 2023 hereafter S23b) provided a more accurate estimate of the aerosol and water vapor forcing confirming that the aerosol forcing overwhelms the water vapor flux increase during the first year following the eruption.

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Our results show that during most of the Hunga period there is global net cooling, except for the Jan-Feb. 2022 period right after the eruption, when the water vapor forcing peaked, and before most of the aerosol shroud has formed. A second region of very slightly positive forcing occurs between 10°S and 40°S June-December 2022 where decreases in ozone generate an increase in tropopause shortwave flux.

The Jan-Feb. 2022 global flux increases occurs when a NH warming– not connected with Hunga (Figure 3a) - exceeds the SH cooling. We also note that from Figures 9 and 10 and Table 2, the aerosol reduction in direct forcing is largest in the SH to which the aerosols are confined through most of the post eruption period (Figure 5). We conclude that the Hunga peak global forcing is −0.475 ± 0.145 W/m2. In contrast, the Pinatubo global forcing was ∼−3.5 W/m2 (Pitari et al., 2016), about 6–12 times larger than Hunga.

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The Hunga eruption cooled the climate, but the amount of cooling is so small it will be difficult to extract the signal from tropospheric meteorological observations.